Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

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dc.creatorMartre, Pierre
dc.creatorWallach, Daniel
dc.creatorAsseng, Senthold
dc.creatorEwert, Frank
dc.creatorJones, James W.
dc.creatorRötter, Reimund P.
dc.creatorBoote, Kenneth J.
dc.creatorRuane, Alex C.
dc.creatorThorburn, Peter J.
dc.creatorCammarano, Davide
dc.creatorHatfield, Jerry L.
dc.creatorRosenzweig, Cynthia
dc.creatorAggarwal, Pramod K.
dc.creatorAngulo, Carlos
dc.creatorBasso, Bruno
dc.creatorBertuzzi, Patrick
dc.creatorBiernath, Christian
dc.creatorBrisson, Nadine
dc.creatorChallinor, Andrew J.
dc.creatorDoltra, Jordi
dc.creatorGayler, Sebastian
dc.creatorGoldberg, Richie
dc.creatorGrant, Robert F.
dc.creatorHeng, Lee
dc.creatorHooker, Josh
dc.creatorHunt, Leslie A.
dc.creatorIngwersen, Joachim
dc.creatorIzaurralde, Roberto César
dc.creatorKersebaum, Kurt-Christian
dc.creatorMüller, Christoph
dc.creatorKumar, Soora Naresh
dc.creatorNendel, Claas
dc.creatorO’Leary, Garry J.
dc.creatorOlesen, Jørgen E.
dc.creatorOsborne, Tom M.
dc.creatorPalosuo, Taru
dc.creatorPriesack, Eckart
dc.creatorRipoche, Dominique
dc.creatorSemenov, Mikhail A.
dc.creatorShcherbak, Iurii
dc.creatorSteduto, Pasquale
dc.creatorStöckle, Claudio O.
dc.creatorStratonovitch, Pierre
dc.creatorStreck, Thilo
dc.creatorSupit, Iwan
dc.creatorTao, Fulu
dc.creatorTravasso, Maria
dc.creatorWaha, Katharina
dc.creatorWhite, Jeffrey W.
dc.creatorWolf, Joost
dc.date2015-02
dc.date2015-03-12T19:29:04Z
dc.date2015-03-12T19:29:04Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:32:54Z
dc.descriptionCrop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24–38% for the different end‐of‐season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in‐season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e‐mean) or median (e‐median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e‐median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e‐mean and e‐median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/57489
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/81383
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rightsLimited Access
dc.sourceMartre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Cammarano, Davide; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J.; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richie; Grant, Robert F.; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh; Hunt, Leslie A.; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Müller, Christoph; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Osborne, Tom M.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost. 2015. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth : many models are better than one. Global Change Biology 21: 911-25.
dc.subjectmathematical models
dc.subjectsimulation models
dc.subjectwheats
dc.subjectyields
dc.subjecttriticum aestivum
dc.subjectmodelos matemáticos
dc.subjectmodelos de simulación
dc.subjecttrigo
dc.subjectrendimiento
dc.subjectecology
dc.titleMultimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one
dc.typeJournal Article

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Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)