Forest transition in developing countries : analysis of the level of forest cover at the turning point using a Heckman truncated model procedure
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The forest transition refers to the change from decreasing to increasing in the forest area of a
country. Where the forest cover reaches its minimum is called the turning point. At this point,
the country does not deforest anymore. This paper studies the probability of occurrence of a
turning point for a developing country, and then explain the level of forest remaining at this
moment. Indeed, it is be strongly policy relevant and interesting to consider which variables
determine the forest cover at the turning point. Why do some countries experience a turning
point at 10% forest cover while other ones experience it at 30%? This paper allow to progress
on the comprehension of the cumulative nature of deforestation along the development process.
Moreover, it can help to strengthen public policies to fight against deforestation, by transposing
the results to countries that have not yet observed a turning point, and thus affect the right
variables to make the turning point occur earlier in time and higher in forest cover. Since only
some countries are observing a turning point, the existence of a selection bias must be taken into
account. A Heckman truncated model procedure is used.