Simulating Poverty in Europe : The Potential Contributions of Employment and Education to Reducing Poverty and Social Exclusion by 2020

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dc.creatorSimler, Kenneth
dc.creatorAzam, Mehtabul
dc.creatorDasgupta, Basab
dc.creatorBonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha
dc.creatorTopinska, Irena
dc.creatorAjwad, Mohamed Ihsan
dc.date2014-02-04T19:09:01Z
dc.date2014-02-04T19:09:01Z
dc.date2013-10
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:54:23Z
dc.descriptionThis paper sheds light on the impact of improving employment and education conditions on poverty and social exclusion indicators. More specifically, it answers the following question: Will achieving the Europe 2020 national targets on employment and education lead countries to achieve the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target with no other policy interventions? The paper presents a simple partial equilibrium model that is flexible enough to be implemented in a number of different settings and uses widely available household survey data. The simulation model analyzes poverty and social exclusion outcomes in response to changes in education completion rates and employment rates. The model is applied to ten of the European Union's new Member States -- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia -- and the model's performance is evaluated through a validation exercise. The Europe 2020 national employment targets are ambitious in many of the new Member States, given historical employment patterns in the countries. Especially in light of the slow and uncertain recovery, labor markets remain weak and employment rates in 2020 could fall short of rates targeted by national policy makers. In this eventuality, the poverty and social exclusion goals may not be reached in many of the new Member States without additional policy measures.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18404040/simulating-poverty-europe-potential-contributions-employment-education-reducing-poverty-social-exclusion-2020
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/16873
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6660
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412755
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6660
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectABSOLUTE POVERTY
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectCHRONIC ILLNESS
dc.subjectCITIES
dc.subjectCOUNTRY LEVEL
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectDISABLED PEOPLE
dc.subjectDISADVANTAGED GROUPS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectEDUCATION LEVEL
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT GROWTH
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT PATTERNS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT STATUS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
dc.subjectEXPLAINING CHANGES
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectFAMILY LABOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHIGH EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectHIGH GROWTH
dc.subjectHOSPITALS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMMIGRANTS
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME DATA
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME TRANSFERS
dc.subjectINDEPENDENT VARIABLES
dc.subjectINDEXES
dc.subjectINDICATORS OF POVERTY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINNOVATION
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET INDICATORS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectOLD AGE
dc.subjectOLDER WORKERS
dc.subjectOUTCOME INDICATORS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectPERSISTENT POVERTY
dc.subjectPOLICY CHANGE
dc.subjectPOLICY INTERVENTIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOLICY REFORMS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCIDENCE
dc.subjectPOVERTY INDICATORS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVELS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY POVERTY
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subjectPRIVATE TRANSFERS
dc.subjectPROBABILITY
dc.subjectREDUCING POVERTY
dc.subjectREFORM PROGRAMS
dc.subjectRELATIVE POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectRETIREMENT
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSECOND ROUND EFFECTS
dc.subjectSELECTION BIAS
dc.subjectSHARP REDUCTION
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
dc.subjectSOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectSOCIAL INCLUSION
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectTARGETING
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYED
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.titleSimulating Poverty in Europe : The Potential Contributions of Employment and Education to Reducing Poverty and Social Exclusion by 2020

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