Orphans and Ebola : Estimating the Secondary Impact of a Public Health Crisis
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in
West Africa is the largest to date by far. Ebola Virus
Disease causes disproportionate mortality among the
working-age population, resulting in far more mortality for
parents of young children than other health crises. This
paper combines data on the age distribution of current and
projected mortality from Ebola with the fertility
distribution of adults in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone,
to estimate the likely impact of the epidemic on the number
of orphans in these three countries. Using the latest
mortality estimates (from February 11, 2015), it is
estimated that more than 9,600 children have lost one or
both parents to Ebola Virus Disease. The absolute numbers of
orphans created by the Ebola epidemic are significant, but
represent a small fraction (1.4 percent) of the existing
orphan burden in the affected countries. Ebola is unlikely
to increase the numbers of orphans beyond extended family
networks' capacities to absorb them. Nonetheless, the
pressures of caring for increased numbers of orphans may
result in lower quality of care. These estimates should be
used to guide policy to support family networks to improve
the capacity to provide high quality care to orphans.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNT, AGE DISTRIBUTION, AGE GROUPS, AIDS EPIDEMIC, CAREGIVERS, CAREGIVERS OF ORPHANS, CHILD FOSTERING, CHILD MORTALITY, CHILDREN UNDER AGE, COMMUNITY HEALTH, CULTURAL CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOUBLE ORPHANS, EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES, EPIDEMIC, EPIDEMICS, EXTENDED FAMILY, EXTENDED FAMILY SAFETY NET, FAMILY MEMBERS, FERTILITY, FOSTER CARE, FUTURE GENERATIONS, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH SYSTEM, HIV, HIV/AIDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INFECTIOUS DISEASES, INFORMATION SERVICES, JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, LABOR MARKET, MALARIA, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL ORPHANS, MEDICAL CARE, MINISTRY OF HEALTH, MINOR CHILDREN, MOTHER, NATIONAL AIDS, NATIONAL AIDS CONTROL, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUMBER OF DEATHS, NUMBER OF ORPHANS, OLD-AGE, ORPHAN, ORPHAN CARE, ORPHAN CHILDREN, ORPHANHOOD, ORPHANS, PARENTAL DEATH, PATERNAL ORPHANS, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION STUDIES, PROGRESS, PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT, PUBLIC HEALTH, QUALITY CARE, QUALITY OF CARE, RISK FACTORS, SCHOOL AGE, SCHOOLING, SCHOOLS, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL SCIENCE, SOCIAL WELFARE, SPOUSE, SPOUSES, TRANSMISSION, UNIONS, VICTIMS, VULNERABILITY, VULNERABLE CHILDREN, WOMAN, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG CHILDREN