Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
It is becoming increasingly apparent
that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price
increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to
the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and
the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character.
From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy,
fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went
up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled.
Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not
only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed
government officials, leading to calls for coordinated
policy actions. This paper examines the relative
contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to
price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice,
soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form
econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers
include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing
prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest
rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates
(approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios, 0.25 for
the oil price, -1.25 for the exchange rate, and much less
for others), the paper estimates the contribution of these
drivers to food price increases from 1997-2004 to 2005-12.
It concludes that most of the price increases are accounted
for by crude oil prices (more than 50 percent), followed by
stock-to-use ratios and exchange rate movements, which are
estimated at about 15 percent each. Crude oil prices
mattered most during the recent boom period because they
experienced the largest increase.
Palabras clave
AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURE, ANIMAL PRODUCTS, APPROACH, AVERAGE PRICE, BIOMASS, CENTRAL BANKS, CEREAL PRICES, CEREALS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, COCOA, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMPTION OF COMMODITIES, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION, CRUDE OIL PRICE, CURRENCY, DEBT, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND GROWTH, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDIBLE OILS, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT, EMERGING ECONOMIES, ENERGY DEMAND, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY MARKETS, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY PRICE, ENERGY PRICES, ENERGY SECURITY, EQUILIBRIUM PRICE, ETHANOL, ETHANOL PRICES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXOGENOUS SHOCK, EXPORT MARKET, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCING FACILITY, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD RESERVES, FOOD SECURITY, FUEL, FUEL CONSUMPTION, FUTURES, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL EXPORTS, GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY, GRAIN RESERVES, GRAINS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATES, IFPRI, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOMES, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INPUT PRICES, INSURANCE, INSURANCE MECHANISMS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INVENTORY, MAIZE, MARKET CONCENTRATION, MARKET FAILURE, MARKETING, MEAL, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, OIL CONSUMPTION, OIL CRISES, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL SECTOR, OIL SPILLS, PADDY, PALM OIL, PARTICULAR COUNTRY, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, PORTFOLIOS, POWER PARITY, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDEXES, PRICE INFLATION, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE STABILIZATION, PRICE TRENDS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRICES OF ENERGY, PRODUCER PRICES, PROTEIN, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RATE OF RETURN, RAW MATERIALS, RELATIVE PRICE, RESERVE BANK, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, RICE MARKETING, SOURCE OF ENERGY, SOYBEAN, SOYBEAN OIL, SOYBEANS, STOCKS, SUBSTITUTES, SUGARCANE, SUPPLY SCHEDULE, SUPPLY SCHEDULES, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SUPPLY SIDE, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, TREASURY, TREASURY BILL, VOLATILE INTERNATIONAL, WHEAT, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD TRADE