Diversificación de exportaciones agrícolas en América Latina y el Caribe: patrones y determinantes
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This paper analyzes the evolution of agricultural export diversity for 22 countries of Latin
America and the Caribbean between 1961 and 2002. Data from FAOSTAT for basic and process
agricultural products were used to construct a modified Herfindahl (Simpson) index of product
export shares that accounts for the correlation of product prices and places less weight on
products with positively correlated prices. The recent pattern of diversification shows a
systematic increase since the mid- to late-1980s, with a clear distinction between the patterns for
South America and for Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean. The individual country
changes, however, are heterogeneous and due to the country-specific initial mixes and subsequent
changes the mix of export products. Instrumental variable estimation results show that changes in
diversification have been positively related to country financial depth, extent of irrigation, and
trade openness, and negatively related to price instability (inflation) and the size of government
as a proportion of GDP. Notably, the level of a country's economic development is negatively
related to agricultural export diversification.