Uganda Economic Update, 14th Edition, February 2020
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Following the release of new GDP
estimates, nominal GDP for FY18/19 increased and the
structure of the economy has changed. In October 2019, the
Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) released new GDP
estimates, updating the base year for estimating economic
activity to 2016/17 from 2009/10. As a result, nominal GDP
for FY18/19 was revised upwards from USh 109,945 billion to
USh 128,499 billion. Furthermore, the share of industry in
GDP has increased from about 20 percent to almost 30
percent. At the same time, there has been a drop in the
share of services from about 58 percent to 46 percent.
Manufacturing has doubled its share from about 8 percent to
over 16 percent of GDP, whilst information and
communications (IC) has fallen from 12 percent to just under
2 percent of GDP. Real GDP grew by 6.5 percent in FY18/19,
maintaining the rebound in economic activity over the last
two years. This has been driven by strong levels of domestic
consumption and sustained levels of public and private
investment. Net FDI inflows shot up to 5.1 percent of GDP in
FY18/19 from 3 percent of GDP the previous year. The
construction sector continues to grow at double-digit
levels. There has been a jump in manufacturing growth
supported by recent expansions in the sector, including
investments in new factories. Agriculture was boosted by
another decent harvest and a strong rebound in fisheries.
Levels of GDP growth of about 6 percent and above are
expected over the medium-term, driven by consumption
spending, intensified private and public investments in
infrastructure for industrialization, electricity
transmission, and preparation for oil extraction. Still,
this growth is not high enough for Uganda’s lower
middle-income status and poverty reduction ambitions.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, FISCAL TRENDS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, RISKS, MONETARY POLICY, INCLUSIVE GROWTH, POVERTY REDUCTION, SOCIAL PROTECTION, HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT, STUNTING, SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, LEARNING OUTCOMES