Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034: Medium-term prospects for global agricultural commodity markets
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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 presents a ten-year baseline scenario for global agricultural and fish markets, highlighting expected developments in consumption, production, trade and prices. Consumption of livestock and fish products is projected to rise, driven mainly by income and population growth in middle-income countries, while intake in low-income countries remains well below levels associated with the FAO Healthy Diet Basket. Global agricultural and fish production is anticipated to expand by 14 percent over the coming decade, mostly based on expected productivity improvements. However, this growth, combined with structural shifts towards greater animal production, is still projected to increase cropland areas, livestock herds and direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions despite improvements in carbon intensity. International trade will remain essential for global food security, nutrition and livelihoods, as an estimated 22 percent of all calories will be traded internationally. Regional differences will persist: imports are projected to account for nearly 70 percent of domestic consumption in the Near East and North Africa, while the Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to export close to 60 percent of its agricultural output. Strengthening multilateral cooperation and preserving a rules-based agricultural trading system will be crucial for supporting market stability and enhancing sustainability.