India Development Update, April 2013
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Washington, DC
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The economy is likely to expand by 5.0
percent in FY2013. Although the slowing momentum of economic
growth may have bottomed out in the third quarter of FY2013,
even a substantial pickup in the last quarter of the fiscal
year is unlikely to lift the growth rate of real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost much beyond 5.0
percent given the weakness observed over the previous three
quarters. Inflation and fiscal deficit have declined, but
the current account deficit has widened. The Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) has had to strike a tough balance between
providing some monetary stimulus and restraining further
price growth. As inflation, measured by the wholesale price
index, has begun to decelerate in recent months, the
authorities may gain additional policy room. Continued
progress on the reform agenda is key to mitigating downside
risks. The authorities' ability to respond to negative
external shocks is more limited today than during the
2008-09 global crisis. Additional efforts may be needed to
create the fiscal space for India's progress towards
universal health coverage. The depreciation of the rupee
appears to have lost steam, and the currency strengthened in
the second half of the year. With a weaker Balance of
Payment (BoP) position, the rupee continued to lose value
during FY2013 and hit an all-time low in June, remaining
around that level until August. Food inflation remained high
while fuel inflation accelerated after deregulation of
diesel prices. Expenditure compression in the social sectors
and reduction in capital spending allowed for reaching the
fiscal targets.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT PATH, ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGRICULTURE, ASSET QUALITY, AUCTIONS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK CREDIT, BANKING SECTOR, BENCHMARK, BENEFICIARIES, BENEFICIARY, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CASH RESERVE, CASH RESERVE RATIO, CASH TRANSFER, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMUNITY HEALTH, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER DURABLES, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CORPORATE BOND, CORPORATE BOND MARKETS, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT RATING, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT RATIO, DEBT RATIOS, DECELERATION IN GROWTH, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DERIVATIVES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DOMESTIC CREDIT, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ELASTICITY, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCISE TAXES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FAMILIES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOW, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FISCAL BURDEN, FISCAL CAPACITY, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL DISCIPLINE, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FIXED INVESTMENT, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN RESERVES, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL TRADE, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BANK, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT DEFICIT, GOVERNMENT FINANCES, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES, GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH FOR ALL, HEALTH INTERVENTIONS, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH POLICY, HEALTH SERVICES, HOLDING, HOSPITALIZATION, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPORT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME ELASTICITIES, INCOME TAX, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INSURANCE, INSURANCE INDUSTRY, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INTERVENTION, INVESTMENT RATES, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY RATIO, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, LONG-TERM INTEREST, LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES, M2, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET PRICES, MARKETING, MATURITY, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MIGRANTS, MONETARY AUTHORITY, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MORTALITY, NATIONAL SAVINGS, NEGATIVE SHOCKS, NET EXPORTS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NONPERFORMING LOANS, OIL PRICES, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OUTTURN, PARTIAL DEREGULATION, PATIENT, PATIENT CHOICE, PATIENTS, PENSION, POLICY RESPONSE, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, POSITIVE EFFECTS, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC BANKS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUSH FACTORS, QUALITY OF LIFE, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, REPO, REPO RATE, RESERVE, RESERVE BANK, RESERVE FUNDS, RETURN, RISK AVERSION, RISK PREMIUMS, SAVINGS RATES, SECURITIES, SLOWDOWN, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STATUTORY LIQUIDITY, SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, SURPLUS, TAX, TAX COLLECTIONS, TAX INCENTIVES, TAX POLICY, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TOTAL COSTS, TOTAL DEBT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE CREDITS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE GROWTH, TREASURY, TREASURY BILLS, UNCERTAINTY, VALUATION, WAGES, WALKING, WEALTH, WEALTH EFFECT, WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, WORKERS