An Economic Model of Brazil's Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies

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dc.creatorde Gorter, Harry
dc.creatorDrabik, Dusan
dc.creatorKliauga, Erika M.
dc.creatorTimilsina, Govinda R.
dc.date2013-09-26T19:22:54Z
dc.date2013-09-26T19:22:54Z
dc.date2013-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:53:12Z
dc.descriptionThe lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17941690/economic-model-brazils-ethanol-sugar-markets-impacts-fuel-policies
dc.identifierWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/15882
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-6524
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412468
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6524
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE ENERGY
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE FUEL
dc.subjectANHYDROUS ETHANOL
dc.subjectAPPROACH
dc.subjectBAGASSE
dc.subjectBIOENERGY
dc.subjectBIOFUEL
dc.subjectBIOFUELS
dc.subjectBIOMASS
dc.subjectBOILERS
dc.subjectCO
dc.subjectCOLLECTION COSTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION OF FUEL
dc.subjectCONVENTIONAL GASOLINE
dc.subjectCORN
dc.subjectCORN ETHANOL
dc.subjectCOST OF ETHANOL
dc.subjectCOST OF FEEDSTOCK
dc.subjectCOST OF SUGARCANE
dc.subjectCRUDE OIL
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVE
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVES
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR ETHANOL
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR GASOLINE
dc.subjectDEMAND FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectELECTRICITY
dc.subjectELECTRICITY COGENERATION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRICES
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectENERGY ECONOMICS
dc.subjectENERGY MARKETS
dc.subjectENERGY SOURCES
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
dc.subjectETHANOL
dc.subjectETHANOL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectETHANOL DEMAND
dc.subjectETHANOL FROM SUGARCANE
dc.subjectETHANOL FUEL
dc.subjectETHANOL INDUSTRY
dc.subjectETHANOL MARKET
dc.subjectETHANOL MARKET PRICES
dc.subjectETHANOL MARKETS
dc.subjectETHANOL PRICE
dc.subjectETHANOL PRICES
dc.subjectETHANOL PRODUCER
dc.subjectETHANOL PRODUCERS
dc.subjectETHANOL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectETHANOL PROGRAM
dc.subjectETHANOL YIELD
dc.subjectETHANOL YIELDS
dc.subjectEXCESS ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKET
dc.subjectFEEDSTOCKS
dc.subjectFREE MARKET
dc.subjectFUEL
dc.subjectFUEL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFUEL DEMAND
dc.subjectFUEL MARKET
dc.subjectFUEL PRICE
dc.subjectFUEL PRICES
dc.subjectFUEL QUANTITIES
dc.subjectFUEL TAX
dc.subjectFUEL TAXES
dc.subjectFUEL VOLUME
dc.subjectGASOLINE
dc.subjectGASOLINE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectGASOLINE EQUIVALENT
dc.subjectGASOLINE MARKET
dc.subjectGASOLINE PRICE
dc.subjectGASOLINE PRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectGASOLINE PRICES
dc.subjectGASOLINE SUPPLY
dc.subjectGASOLINE TAX
dc.subjectGRAIN PRICES
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectHIGH ETHANOL
dc.subjectHIGHER ETHANOL
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectKILOWATT HOURS
dc.subjectMARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMARKET DEMAND
dc.subjectMARKET DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectMARKET EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMARKETING
dc.subjectMERCHANDISE
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectPETROLEUM
dc.subjectPH
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGE
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE DECREASE
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASE
dc.subjectPRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectPRICE OF ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectPRICE OF ETHANOL
dc.subjectPRICE OF FUELS
dc.subjectPRICE OF GASOLINE
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICE
dc.subjectPURCHASING
dc.subjectQUANTITY OF FUEL
dc.subjectRELEVANT MARKETS
dc.subjectRETAIL
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSOURCE OF ETHANOL
dc.subjectSPOT PRICE
dc.subjectSUGAR
dc.subjectSUGAR CANE
dc.subjectSUGARCANE
dc.subjectSUGARCANE ETHANOL
dc.subjectSUGARCANE PRODUCTION
dc.subjectSUGARCANE-ETHANOL
dc.subjectSUPPLIES OF ETHANOL
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVE
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVES
dc.subjectSUPPLY ELASTICITY
dc.subjectSUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectTAX BREAKS
dc.subjectTAX CREDIT
dc.subjectTAX CREDITS
dc.subjectTAX EXEMPTION
dc.subjectTAX EXEMPTIONS
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION FUEL
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION FUELS
dc.subjectVEHICLE
dc.subjectVEHICLES
dc.subjectWHOLESALE GASOLINE
dc.subjectWHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICE
dc.subjectWHOLESALE PRICE
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectflex-plant
dc.subjectblend mandate
dc.titleAn Economic Model of Brazil's Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies

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