Oil and Civil Conflict : Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In this paper, the conditions under
which the spending patterns of oil resources may mitigate
the risk of violent domestic conflict are studied. Some
recent research suggests that more government spending
either in general or specifically in welfare and military
may reduce the risk of civil conflict onset (Hegre and
Sambanis, 2006; Basedau and Lay, 2009; Fjelde and de Soysa,
2009; Taydas and Peksen, 2012). While oil wealth has begun
to be considered in the study of civil conflict as an
important source of revenue for governments, there has not
been a systematic analysis of whether oil-rich countries can
increase public spending or alter the particular allocation
of such spending to social sectors or the military as a way
to mitigate the risk of conflict. We use time-series cross
section data (148 countries, 1960-2009) to test the
hypothesis that oil has a conditional effect on civil
conflict depending on the size of government expenditure and
the allocation of government spending. Our dependent
variable is the onset of small and large civil conflict
(Gleditch et al., 2002). The empirical estimations show that
small and large conflicts alike are less likely when large
parts of oil resources are dedicated to military spending.
Increased spending in education, health or social security
is associated with lower risk of small-scale conflict,
irrespective of the level of oil revenue. On the other hand,
higher levels of general government expenditure do not
appear to have any robust mitigating effects. The paper
proceeds as follows: Section II reviews work on natural
resources and conflict; Section III discusses the literature
on public spending and conflict; Section IV presents our
approach, derives testable hypotheses, and presents the
data; Section V describes the results; and Section VI concludes.
Palabras clave
ADEQUATE EDUCATION, ADULT LITERACY, ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED FORCE, ARMED FORCES, ARMS, BASIC HUMAN NEEDS, BATTLE, CITIZEN, CITIZENS, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL CONFLICTS, CIVIL LIBERTIES, CIVIL PEACE, CIVIL SERVICE, CIVIL UNREST, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, COERCION, COLD WAR, CONFLICT, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT, CONFLICT PREVENTION, CONFLICT RESEARCH, CONFLICT RESOLUTION, CONFLICT RISK, CONFLICT RISKS, CONFLICTS, COST OF REBELLION, DEATHS, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRACY SCORE, DEPENDENCE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISPUTES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE, DURATION OF CONFLICT, DURATION OF PEACE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ETHNIC DIVISIONS, ETHNIC GROUP, ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY, ETHNIC POLITICS, FERTILITY, FIGHTING, FOUNDATIONS, GENOCIDE, GOVERNMENT POWER, HEALTH SECTOR, HIGH RISK, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION, IMF, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME PER CAPITA, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INTERNAL CONFLICT, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, INTERNATIONAL WAR, INTERPERSONAL SKILLS, INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, LACK OF DEMOCRACY, LEVEL OF POVERTY, LIMITED RESOURCES, LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION, LITERACY RATES, LIVING STANDARDS, MATERIAL RESOURCES, MILITARIZATION, MILITARY BUDGETS, MILITARY EXPENDITURE, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, MILITARY FORCES, MILITARY OPPOSITION, MILITARY PERSONNEL, MILITARY REGIMES, MILITARY SPENDING, NATIONAL DEFENSE, NATIONALISM, NATIONS, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OBSERVER, OPPORTUNITY COST, PEACE, PEACE RESEARCH, PENSIONS, PERSONAL ENRICHMENT, POLICE, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CHANGE, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, POLITICAL OPPOSITION, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, POLITICAL PROCESS, POLITICAL RIGHTS, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL SUPPORT, POLITICAL VIOLENCE, POPULATION SIZE, POPULOUS COUNTRIES, POST-CONFLICT, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICES, QUALITY OF LIFE, REBEL, REBEL GROUP, REBEL GROUPS, REBELLION, REBELS, RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION, RESOURCE MOBILIZATION, REVOLUTIONS, RISK OF CONFLICT, RURAL AREAS, SAFETY NETS, SANITATION, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECURITY FORCES, SERVICE DELIVERY, SOCIAL COHESION, SOCIAL EXPENDITURES, SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL WELFARE, STATE UNIVERSITY, TERRORISM, TOLERANCE, UNEMPLOYMENT, VICTIMS, VIOLENT CONFLICT, VIOLENT CONFLICTS, VIOLENT MEANS, WAR DURATION, WAR ECONOMY, WAR PROJECT, WARFARE, WORLD DEVELOPMENT, YOUNG MALE, YOUNG PEOPLE, YOUNG SOLDIERS