An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers
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Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are
of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the
methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development,
using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results
suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in
seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximately five per cent. The
accumulated annual benefit to farmers in the Merredin region (an area with 754 farm
holdings over 35, 500 square kilometres of land) is approximately two million dollars.
Hence, support is given for the development of seasonal forecasting techniques in
Western Australia.