A Bouncing Ball: Long-Run Cyclical Instability in the Sri Lanka Rubber Industry
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Data on the age d1str1button and yields of Sri Lanka rubber are used to generate forecasts of rubber
production based on alternative replantmgpohcies. Such pro1ect1ons do not take mto account short-term
fluctuations caused by weather or responses to changes in producer pnces. Most of the replantmg policies result m
long-run cychcal mstabihty m planting and production. Contrary to other studies, the results suggest that rubber
output levels will decrease steadily over the next 10 years before starting to recover. The study also suggests that
there 1s a substantial gap between productive capacity and hkely output levels.