Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe : A Ricardian Approach

Mano, Reneth; Nhemachena, Charles

Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe : A Ricardian Approach

Autores

Mano, Reneth

Nhemachena, Charles

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country. The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant to changes in climate, indicating that irrigation is an important adaptation option to help reduce the impact of further changes in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households.

Palabras clave

AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS, AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES, AGRICULTURE, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CASH CROPS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATIC ZONE, CLIMATIC ZONES, COFFEE, CONSUMER SURPLUS, CORN, COTTON, COTTON CROP, CROP, CROP DEVELOPMENT, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP VARIETIES, CROP YIELDS, CROPLAND, CROPLANDS, CROPPING, CROPS, DEBT, DECISION MAKING, DOWNPOURS, DROUGHT, DRY LAND, DRY SEASON, ECOLOGICAL ZONE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC EFFECTS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC MODELS, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC VALUE, ECONOMICS, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, EMISSIONS, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, EQUILIBRIUM, EXTENSION, EXTENSION SERVICES, FAO, FARM, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARM INCOME, FARM INCOMES, FARM REVENUES, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEM, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMLAND, FARMS, FERTILIZER, FERTILIZERS, FIELD CROPS, FIELD WORK, FISHING, FLOODING, FOOD CROPS, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FORESTRY, GCM, GDP, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING, GRAIN, GREENHOUSE GASES, GROUNDNUTS, GROUNDWATER, HARVESTING, HARVESTS, IFPRI, INCOME, INFERTILE SOILS, INPUT PRICES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LABOR COSTS, LAND ECONOMICS, LAND USE, LAND USES, LAND VALUE, LIVELIHOODS, LIVESTOCK, MAIZE, MAIZE PRODUCTION, MAIZE YIELDS, MARGINAL ANALYSIS, MARGINAL BENEFITS, MARKET PRICES, MARKETING, MULTIPLE CROPPING, NGOS, PESTICIDE, PLANT GROWTH, PLANTING, PLANTING DATES, PLOWING, POST HARVEST LOSSES, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, PRECIPITATION, PRESENT VALUE, PRICE CHANGES, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCE, PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRAMS, RA, RAINFALL, RAINFED FARMING, RAINY SEASON, RIVERS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SEA LEVEL RISE, SEED, SEED DEVELOPMENT, SEED VARIETIES, SEEDS, SMALL FARMS, SMALLHOLDER, SMALLHOLDERS, SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES, SOIL, SOIL QUALITY, SOIL TYPE, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SORGHUM, SPRING, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUBSISTENCE FARMING, SUGAR, SUNFLOWER, SUNFLOWERS, TEA, TEMPERATURE, TILLAGE, TOBACCO, VEGETABLES, VEGETATION, VETERINARY SERVICES, WATER HARVESTING, WATER RESOURCES, WATER SUPPLY, WELFARE EFFECTS, WHEAT, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY