Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
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Washington, DC : World Bank
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This paper uses a 4-year panel
(2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to
estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by
Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite
imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to
agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine
learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield.
Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14
rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% of
which is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated
conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which is
particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a
15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons.
Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a
war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current
winter crop can be harvested fully.
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Palabras clave
UKRAINE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, MACHINE LEARNING, CONFLICT, WAR