The Effect of Climate and Technological Uncertainty in Crop Yields on the Optimal Path of global land use
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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The pattern of global land use has
important implications for the world's food and timber
supplies, bioenergy, biodiversity and other eco-system
services. However, the productivity of this resource is
critically dependent on the world's climate, as well as
investments in, and dissemination of improved technology.
This creates massive uncertainty about future land use
requirements which compound the challenge faced by
individual investors and governments seeking to make long
term, sometimes irreversible investments in land conversion
and land use. This study assesses how uncertainties
associated with underlying biophysical processes and
technological change in agriculture affect the optimal
profile of land use over the next century, taking into
account the potential irreversibility in these decisions. A
novel dynamic stochastic model of global land use is
developed, in which the societal objective function being
maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels
(including bio-fuels), timber production, and biodiversity.
While the uncertainty in food crop yields has anticipated
impact, the resulting expansion of crop lands and decline in
forest lands is relatively small.
Palabras clave
ABATEMENT, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION OF LAND, AMMONIA, ATMOSPHERE, BARREN LANDS, BASELINE LEVELS, BEQUEST VALUE, BIODIVERSITY, BIOPHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON SEQUESTRATION, CARBON SEQUESTRATION CREDITS, CARBON SYSTEM, CARBON TAXES, CHEMICAL ENGINEERING, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, CLIMATE POLICIES, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CO, CO2, COMMERCIAL FORESTRY, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONVERGENCE, CROP LANDS, DEBT, DECISION MAKING, DEFORESTATION, DEFORESTATION RATES, DEGRADATION, DEGRADED LANDS, DEGREE DAYS, DEMAND FOR CROPLAND, DEMAND FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, DEMAND FOR ENERGY, DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES, DEMAND FOR LAND, DEMAND FOR TIMBER, ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS, ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, ECOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION, ECOLOGY, ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC EFFECTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC WELFARE, ECONOMICS, ECOSYSTEM, ECOSYSTEM SERVICE, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMISSION, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS CONTROL, EMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGE, EMISSIONS PREDICTION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY DEMAND, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY PRICES, ENERGY PRODUCTION, ENERGY USE, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES, EQUILIBRIUM, EROSION, ETHANOL, EXPENDITURES, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREST, FOREST AREA, FOREST AREAS, FOREST CARBON, FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION, FOREST CONSERVATION, FOREST CONVERSION, FOREST HARVESTING, FOREST LAND, FOREST LANDS, FOREST MANAGEMENT, FOREST PRODUCT, FOREST STRUCTURE, FOREST TREE, FORESTRY, FORESTRY MANAGEMENT, FORESTRY SECTOR, FORESTS, FOSSIL FUEL, FOSSIL FUELS, FUEL CONSUMPTION, FUEL SUPPLY, FUELS, GAS PRICES, GAS RESERVES, GCM, GHG, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL ECOLOGY, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, GLOBAL LAND USE, GLOBAL LAND-USE, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GASES, INCOME, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, IPCC, IRREVERSIBILITY, LAND ACCESS, LAND ALLOCATION, LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS, LAND AREA, LAND AREAS, LAND CONVERSION, LAND ECONOMICS, LAND EXPANSION, LAND PROTECTION, LAND RESOURCES, LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, LAND USE DATA, LAND USE DECISIONS, LAND USE MODEL, LAND USES, LAND-USE, LIQUID FUELS, LOGGING, LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY, MANAGED FORESTS, MARKET PRICES, NATURAL CAPITAL, NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS, NATURAL FORESTS, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NH3, NITROGEN, NITROGEN FERTILIZERS, NUTRIENTS, OIL, OIL EQUIVALENT, OPTION VALUE, OZONE, PASTURES, PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, PLANT GROWTH, PLANTING, POPULATION GROWTH, POTASH, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC GOOD, RISK MANAGEMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TEMPERATURE, TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM, TIMBER, TIMBER PROCESSING, TIMBER PRODUCTION, TIMBER PRODUCTS, TREE SPECIES, TREES, TROPICAL RAINFOREST, UNMANAGED FORESTS, WOOD, WOOD PROCESSING, WORLD ENERGY