Trade Insulation as Social Protection
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In a world with volatile food prices,
countries have an incentive to shelter their populations
from induced real income shocks. When some agents are net
food producers while others are net consumers, there is
scope for insurance between the two groups. A domestic
social protection scheme would therefore transfer resources
away from the former group to the latter in times of high
food prices, and do the reverse otherwise. This paper shows
that in the presence of consumer preference heterogeneity,
implementing the optimal social protection policy can
potentially induce higher food price volatility. Such policy
indeed generates a counter-cyclical demand shock that
amplifies the effects of the underlying food shortage. The
results call for a reassessment of food stabilization
policies. In particular, the authors urge caution against
the systematic condemnation of trade insulation practices.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE SELECTION, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURE, ASSET MARKET, ASSET MARKETS, BENCHMARK, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS, COMMERCIAL POLICY, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, CONSUMERS, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND FUNCTIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC HISTORY, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUILIBRIUM PRICE, EQUILIBRIUM PRICES, EQUILIBRIUM VALUES, EXPENDITURE, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL TRADE, EXTERNALITY, EXTREME POVERTY, FAIR, FAMINE, FAMINES, FEED, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, FOOD AVAILABILITY, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CRISIS, FOOD EXPORT, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE STABILIZATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SHORTAGE, FOREIGN MARKET, FREE TRADE, GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY, GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS, GRAIN MARKETS, GRAIN RESERVES, GRAINS, HAZARD, HUNGER, IFPRI, INCOME, INCOMES, INSURANCE, INSURANCE MARKET, INSURANCE MARKETS, INSURANCE POLICIES, INSURANCE POLICY, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LIBERALIZATION, MORAL HAZARD, OPTIMIZATION, OUTPUT, PRICE DISTORTION, PRICE DISTORTIONS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE POLICY, PRICE STABILIZATION, PRICE SUBSIDY, PRICE TAKERS, PRICE VOLATILITY, REAL INCOME, REAL INCOME DECLINES, RICE, RISK SHARING, SECURITIES, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SPOT MARKET, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STARVATION, SUBSTITUTE, SUBSTITUTION, SUPPLY CURVE, SUPPLY SHOCK, SUPPLY SHOCKS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRANSACTION COSTS, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY