Timber demand/supply analysis of east Asian timber trade - trade among eight Japanese regions, China, Korea
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Because of increasing supply of the imported wood at low price, the rate of wood selfsufficiency
in Japan has dropped further below 20%. This resulted in abandoning the
reforestation activities after harvesting, which could impinge on the sustainable forest
management. In this study we first overview the current state of Japanese forestry with a
focus on relationship between the timber market and the sustainable forest management.
Secondly, we estimate price elasticity of lumber supply and demand for eight Japanese
regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), China
and Korea. With the estimated price elasticities for these regions, we finally analyze the
characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal
partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our
results show the following; 1) at the present price level Japan would face to difficulty to
continue the sustainable forest management, 2) Japanese regional lumber demand except
Kyushu would increase, and 3) the additional demand for lumber would be met by Korea and
China.