Modeling the Louisiana Local Government Fiscal Module in a Disequilibrium Environment: A Modified COMPAS Model Approach
| dc.creator | Adhikari, Arun | |
| dc.creator | Fannin, J. Matthew | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T13:44:11Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T10:45:05Z | |
| dc.description | Abstract. The objective of this study is to assess and measure the relative forecasting performance of local government expenditures in Community Policy Analysis Models (COMPAS) during periods of supply/demand disequilibrium. We evaluate whether a fiscal module under the COMPAS framework (an equilibrium model) fits better under a disequilibrium economic en- vironment. We find that both a simple naïve model with one year lagged expenditure and a lagged expenditure model with revenue capacity variables significantly increased forecasting performance relative to the traditional supply/demand equilibrium model of the public sec- tor. We also found weak evidence suggesting that in cases where the equilibrium model is used in a cross-sectional setting, quantile regression may improve forecasting performance given the heterogeneity in the quantity and quality of preferences in public services. | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.243954 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/243954/files/v43_n2_a4_adhikari_fannin.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/243954 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/621627 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/243954 | |
| dc.title | Modeling the Louisiana Local Government Fiscal Module in a Disequilibrium Environment: A Modified COMPAS Model Approach | |
| dc.type | Text |