Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam
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World Bank, Washington, D.C.
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Vietnam grew rapidly in the 1990s, and
yet by many measures it has poor economic institutions.
Dollar seeks to explain this apparent anomaly. Between the
1980s and 1990s Vietnam carried out significant economic
reforms, notably stabilization, the introduction of positive
real interest rates, trade liberalization, and initial
property rights reform in agriculture. Relating these
changes to the empirical growth literature, the author finds
that Vietnam's growth acceleration is about what would
be predicted. Conditional convergence also suggests that the
country's high growth rate will decelerate unless
further reforms are taken. The author then looks at the
level of institutional and policy development in Vietnam
compared with other emerging market economies. While
Vietnam's policies have improved, they did so starting
from a very low base. So, it can be simultaneously true that
Vietnam's policies have improved a lot and yet are
rather poor in comparative perspective. A comparison of
governance indicators, financial sector issues, and the
infrastructure of international integration reveals serious
institutional weaknesses in Vietnam that need to be
addressed if a high growth rate is to be sustained.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC STABILIZATION, REAL INTEREST RATES, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, PROPERTY RIGHTS, POLICY DEVELOPMENT, EMERGING ECONOMIES, GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL RATE, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE INCOMES, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEMS, BUREAUCRATIC DELAYS, BUSINESS COMMUNITY, BUSINESS CYCLES, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL CONTROLS, CAPITAL GROWTH, CLOSED ECONOMIES, COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS, COMPETITION POLICY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE, CONSTANT PRICES, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CORRUPTION, COUNTRY EXPERIENCES, COUNTRY REGRESSIONS, COUNTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS, CRIME, CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES, DATA SET, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISINFLATION, DISTRIBUTION DATA, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DIVISION OF LABOR, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC REVIEW, ECONOMICS, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, ECONOMISTS, EFFICIENT REGULATION, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL REGULARITY, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, ENDOGENOUS GROWTH, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, ENFORCEABILITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN TRADE, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, GROWTH ACCELERATION, GROWTH DATA, GROWTH EFFECT, GROWTH EMPIRICS, GROWTH IMPACT, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH PRO-POOR, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSION, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, GROWTH THEORIES, GROWTH THEORY, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH GROWTH RATE, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH SPREADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTION DATA, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCREASED INEQUALITY, INCREASING RETURNS, INDIVIDUAL POLICIES, INEQUALITY CHANGE, INFLATION RATE, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION, INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES, INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LABOR MARKETS, LAGGED CHANGES, LAGGED GROWTH, LAND REFORM, LAND REFORMS, LDCS, LONG-RUN GROWTH, LONG-TERM GROWTH, LORENZ CURVE, LOW INEQUALITY, MACRO STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC FACTORS, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET ECONOMIES, MEASURING INCOME INEQUALITY, MONETARY ECONOMICS, NATIONAL INCOME, NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, POINT ESTIMATES, POLICY CHANGES, POLICY MEASURES, POLICY PACKAGE, POLICY REFORM, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY STANCE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL STABILITY, POOR COUNTRY, POOR GROWTH, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR POLICIES, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CONTROLS, PRIVATE PROPERTY, PRODUCTIVITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC GOODS, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY, RAPID GROWTH, REAL INTEREST RATES, REGULATORY BURDEN, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, RICH COUNTRIES, RULE OF LAW, SAFETY NETS, SECTOR REFORMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, STANDARD DEVIATION, STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAX EVASION, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE OPENNESS, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORMS, TRADE VOLUMES, TRANSACTIONS COSTS, UNEMPLOYMENT, VALUE ADDED, WTO