Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers
through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions.
Bankers’ qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, selfreported
changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite
this action, aggregates of bankers’ qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and
forecast better than naı¨ve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting
land values.