Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

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dc.creatorIttersum, Martin K. van
dc.creatorAlimagham, Seyyedmajid
dc.creatorSilva, João Vasco
dc.creatorAdjei-Nsiah, Samuel
dc.creatorBaijukya, Frederick P.
dc.creatorBala, Abdullahi
dc.creatorChikowo, Regis
dc.creatorGrassini, Patricio
dc.creatorde Groot, Hugo L.E.
dc.creatorNshizirungu, Aphrodis
dc.creatorMahamane Soulé, Abdelkader
dc.creatorSulser, Timothy B.
dc.creatorTaulya, Godfrey
dc.creatorAmor Tenorio, Fatima
dc.creatorTesfaye, Kindie
dc.creatorYuan, Shen
dc.creatorvan Loon, Marloes P.
dc.date2025-06-17
dc.date2025-06-13T18:50:28Z
dc.date2025-06-13T18:50:28Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:52:52Z
dc.descriptionSub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175093
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/116239
dc.languageen
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/148953
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceIttersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; et al. 2025. Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(24): e2423669122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122
dc.subjectcereals
dc.subjectself-sufficiency
dc.subjectcrop yield
dc.subjectfood supply
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectyield potential
dc.titleProspects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (IITA)