EL NINO’S IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA - 25 November 1997
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Crop production in Latin America is particularly vulnerable to the effects of El Niño. The phenomenon’s early manifestations in 1997 have affected the first season cereal and bean crops in most Central American and Caribbean countries. On average, losses for 1997 crops in the sub-region are estimated at about between 15 and 20 percent as compared with the previous year, but losses in several countries have been substantially higher. The second season crops, currently being harvested, have been a ffected first by excessive rains in September, typical of the hurricane season, and since then by abnormally dry weather associated with El Niño. Prospects of recovery from previously incurred losses are almost nil for most countries. In addition, a serious risk exists for the planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops, beginning in March, should dry weather extend to March/April. In South America, in the Andean countries, planting of the 1998 main season crops is underway. The bulk of th e 1997 cereal crops in these countries had been collected when El Niño’s early effects were felt. In the southern areas of the sub-region, however, plantings of the 1997 wheat crop were significantly reduced in the main producing countries because of excess rainfall. Harvesting is presently underway while sowing of the 1998 maize crop has started. For the sub-region as a whole, precipitation and temperature anomalies prevail and constitute a threat to the crops. The outcome will be largely deter mined by the development of El Niño phenomenon whose strongest impact is expected in the next few months.