South Africa Economic Update

World Bank

South Africa Economic Update

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

The firming of the economic recovery is putting the policy spotlight back on the longer term challenge of faster, more inclusive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Modest investment rates despite attractive returns and low savings rates despite favorable demographics are important impediments. A virtuous cycle of faster capital accumulation, job creation (especially for the youth), and technological advancement needs to be stimulated. There are no quick fixes that can produce the desired stimulus. The quest for inclusive growth calls for a different, bolder approach. Integration of the advanced and less-developed economies and more effective integration with the global economy, using factory Southern Africa as a platform, hold considerable potential. South Africa's medium-term growth prospects point to a strengthening recovery. GDP growth is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2011, 4.1 percent in 2012 and 4.4 percent in 2013. The long term potential growth rate under the current policy environment is estimated at 3.5 percent. In light of South Africa's low national savings, the reemergence of high current account deficits, financed mostly through volatile portfolio flows, will reemerge as the biggest cause for macroeconomic concern over the medium term. With considerable strengthening of the economic recovery and GDP projected to reach its potential by 2014, the focus shifts back to the longer term challenge of raising GDP growth to 6-7 percent and making it much more inclusive to tackle the extremely high unemployment. This first issue is anchored in the national aspirations of faster and more inclusive growth, with special emphasis on the issues of savings and investment.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTABILITY, ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS, ADMINISTRATIVE DISCRETION, AGRICULTURE, ANALYTICAL WORK, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL RATE, ANTI-CORRUPTION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BILATERAL TRADE, BUDGET ALLOCATIONS, BUDGET DEFICIT, CD, CENTRAL BANK, CIVIL SERVICE REFORMS, CIVIL SOCIETY, COALITIONS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSENSUS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CORRUPTION, CRISES, DEBT, DEBT SERVICE RATIO, DECENTRALIZATION, DECENTRALIZATION PROCESS, DECISION-MAKING, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT PROCESS, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISCLOSURE, DISCRETIONARY POWERS, DONOR COMMUNITY, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC REFORMS, EMPLOYMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL, FISCAL MANAGEMENT, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL RESOURCES, FISCAL SITUATION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE REGIME, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTORS, GDP, GNP, GNP PER CAPITA, GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS, GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PATH, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, HEADCOUNT INDEX, HEALTH CARE, HUMAN RESOURCE, HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCES, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCREASED EMPHASIS, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY, LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY, LACK OF OWNERSHIP, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LEGISLATION, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL BODIES, LOCAL LEVEL, LOCAL LEVELS, LONG TERM, M2, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET INSTRUMENTS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, MONARCHY, MONEY SUPPLY, MONOPOLIES, MOTIVATIONS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL PLANNING, NATIONS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PER-CAPITA INCOME, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL INTERFERENCE, POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL STABILITY, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIORITY AREAS, PRIVATE COSTS, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, PRIVATE SECTORS, PRIVILEGED GROUPS, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTIVITY, PUBLIC ENTERPRISES, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC RESOURCES, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATIONALIZATION, RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, REDUCING POVERTY, REPRESENTATIVES, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, RESOURCE USE, RULE OF LAW, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COMMUNITIES, SAVINGS, SERVICE DELIVERY, SHORT TERM, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL INDICATORS, SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL SERVICES, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, TAX ADMINISTRATION, TAX COMPLIANCE, TAX REFORMS, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TECHNICAL CAPACITY, TECHNICAL SERVICES, TECHNICAL SUPPORT, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL EXPENDITURES, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE POLICIES, TRANSPARENCY, URBAN POPULATION, VALUATION, VALUE ADDED, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WATER RESOURCES, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION