OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Descripción

The Agricultural Outlook, 2014-2023, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The special feature on India has b een prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India and the FAO Representation in India. However, OECD and FAO are responsible for the information and projections contained in this document, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Indian institutions. The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments. The projections of production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2014 to 2023. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual g rowth rates or percentage changes for the final year 2023 relative to a three-year base period of 2011-13. The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline projections are examined through a number of possible alternative scenarios and stochastic analysis, whic h illustrate how market outcomes may differ from the deterministic baseline projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.