Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia

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dc.creatorThurlow, James
dc.creatorZhu, Tingju
dc.creatorDiao, Xinshen
dc.date2012-08
dc.date2024-10-01T13:55:44Z
dc.date2024-10-01T13:55:44Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:23:24Z
dc.descriptionEconomy‐wide and hydrological‐crop models are combined to assess the economic impacts of historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by 4% over a 10‐year period and pulls 2% of the population below the poverty line. Socioeconomic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Climate change scenarios draw on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. The paper concludes that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/153166
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/102931
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rightsLimited Access
dc.sourceThurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Diao, Xinshen 2012. Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia. Review of Development Economics 16(3): 394-411
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectdeveloping countries
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjecteconomic impact
dc.subjectgrowth
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.titleCurrent climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia
dc.typeJournal Article

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