Examining climate fragility and building resilience: a multidimensional analysis of water, land, agrifood and community systems in the Bouregreg Basin, Morocco
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International Water Management Institute
CGIAR Scaling for Impact Program
CGIAR Scaling for Impact Program
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This multidimensional analysis evaluates climate fragility in the Bouregreg River basin (10,597 km?, NW Morocco), a key watershed for water supply and rural livelihoods. It mapped fragility in water, land and agrifood systems under current conditions and projected climate scenarios. Methods integrated earth observation, modeling and GIS multi-hazard mapping with stakeholder dialogues. Results identify hotspots where drought, floods and erosion compound risks. Successive droughts depress river flows and groundwater recharge, reducing water reliability, while warming increases demand. Floods enhance recharge yet damage infrastructure and settlements. Erosion linked to rainfall extremes, vegetation loss and grazing pressure drives nutrient loss and sedimentation that threatens Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah dam performance. Implications support integrated and scalable resilience pathways: stronger rainfall/groundwater monitoring, flood and drought early warning, small storage and natural retention, soil conservation and ecosystem restoration, and agrifood adaptation via efficient irrigation, water reuse and drought-tolerant crops, enabled by research–private sector partnerships, with targeted investments and local capacity building.
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climate change, fragility, resilience, water resources, land resources, agrifood systems, communities, natural resources, governance, vulnerability, basins