Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis

Brahmbhatt, Milan; Canuto, Otaviano

Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis

Autores

Brahmbhatt, Milan

Canuto, Otaviano

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

Recent events have rekindled interest in the role of primary commodities in development. Was the boom in commodity prices from around 2003 through 2008 just a cyclical event, or does it suggests that prices have entered on a period of secular strength, driven by factors such as demand in big, fast growing developing countries like China? It is notable that, while commodity prices fell sharply from their peak in 2008 with the onset of the global recession, they generally remained much higher than previous recession lows, often as high as in 2005-07, a period of robust world growth. Furthermore, prices have also rebounded smartly over the course of 2009. If a period of sustained commodity strength is imminent, what are the implications for development policies? Development economists have long debated the problems associated with the traditionally high specialization in production and export of primary commodities of most developing countries. Many argue that dependence on primary commodities has proved to be a poisoned chalice or curse for development, which, given this view, necessarily entails structural change and rapid industrialization. Others, however, suggest that sustained high commodity prices could reduce the relevance of an industrialization-focused development strategy for commodity-dependent, low-income countries (LICs). In this note authors briefly review four questions: how dependent are developing countries on primary commodity exports? What is the outlook for primary commodity prices? Is there a natural resource "curse" (or blessing)? What policies can help poor countries best manage commodity resources for long-run development?

Palabras clave

AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION, ASSET PRICES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISES, BENCHMARK, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL BANK, CHECKS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORT, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, DEBT, DEBT LEVELS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT PATHS, DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISCOUNT RATE, DOMESTIC DEBT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ELASTICITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTERS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCIAL ASSETS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FORECASTS, FOREIGN ASSETS, FOREIGN DEBT, FUEL USE, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL RECESSION, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME STREAM, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INFLATION, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INNOVATION, INSPECTION, INTANGIBLE, INTEREST RATES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE REFORMS, INVESTMENT FUNDS, INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MANUFACTURING, MATERIAL, MISMANAGEMENT, MONETARY POLICY, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NETWORKS, OUTPUT, OVERVALUATION, PERMANENT INCOME, POLICY FORMULATION, POLICY FRAMEWORK, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDEXES, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTION PROCESSES, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SPENDING, RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION, RATES OF RETURN, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, RELATIVE PRICES, RESERVES, RESULT, RESULTS, RETURN, RETURNS, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATE, SAVINGS RATES, SKILL SHORTAGES, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUPPLY SIDE, TAX, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WEALTH, WEB, WEB SITE, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS