Disasters and Economic Welfare : Can National Savings Help Explain Post-disaster Changes in Consumption?
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The debate on whether natural disasters
cause significant macroeconomic impacts and indeed hinder
development is ongoing. Most analyses along these lines have
focused on impacts on gross domestic product. This paper
looks beyond this standard national accounting aggregate,
and examines whether traditional and alternative national
savings measures combined with adjustments for the
destruction of capital stocks may contribute to better
explaining post-disaster changes in welfare as measured by
changes in consumption expenditure. The author concludes
that including disaster asset losses may help to better
explain variations in post-disaster consumption, albeit
almost exclusively for the group of low-income countries.
The observed effect is rather small and in the range of a
few percent of the explained variation. For low-income
countries, capital stock and changes therein, such as forced
by disaster shocks, seem to play a more important role than
for higher-income economies, where human capital and
technological progress become crucial. There are important
data constraints and uncertainties, particularly regarding
the quality of disaster loss data and the shares of capital
stock losses therein. Another important challenge
potentially biasing the results is the lack of data on
alternative savings measures for many disaster-exposed
lower-income countries and small island states.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES, ADVERSE EFFECTS, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRICULTURE, AIR POLLUTION, CALCULATION, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL STOCKS, CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, CONTRIBUTION, CRED, DAMAGES, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT NETWORK, DISASTER, DISASTER COMMUNITY, DISASTER EVENTS, DISASTER PREVENTION, DISASTER RECOVERY, DISASTER REDUCTION, DISASTER RISK, DISASTER RISK REDUCTION, DISASTERS, DISCOUNT RATE, DISCOUNT RATES, DROUGHT, DROUGHTS, EARTHQUAKE, EARTHQUAKES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC INFORMATION, ECONOMIC RISK, EMERGING ECONOMIES, ENTRY POINT, EXTREME EVENTS, FINANCIAL LOSSES, FIXED CAPITAL, FLOOD, FLOODING, FLOODS, FOREST FIRES, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GLOBALIZATION, GNP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS INCOME, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HURRICANE, HURRICANES, INCOME, INCOME GROUPS, INSURANCE, INSURANCE COMPANIES, INVESTING, LOW INCOME, LOW INCOME GROUP, LOW-INCOME, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOW-INCOME GROUP, LOW-INCOME GROUPS, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL CATASTROPHES, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL HAZARDS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NET CAPITAL, NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PREDICTABILITY, PRESENT VALUE, RECONSTRUCTION, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, REINSURANCE, REINVESTMENTS, RELIEF, RENTS, RISK MANAGEMENT, SAVINGS, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL COSTS, SOCIAL WELFARE, STOCKS, STORM, STORMS, SUDDEN ONSET DISASTERS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, THIRD WORLD, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, TROPICAL CYCLONES, VOLATILITY, WEALTH, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS