How Does Vietnam's Accession to the World Trade Organization Change the Spatial Incidence of Poverty?

Fujii, Tomoki; Roland-Holst, David

How Does Vietnam's Accession to the World Trade Organization Change the Spatial Incidence of Poverty?

Autores

Fujii, Tomoki

Roland-Holst, David

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Palabras clave

ABSOLUTE TERMS, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ASSET HOLDINGS, BILATERAL TRADE, BULLETIN, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CIVIL SOCIETY, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION POVERTY, COUNTERFACTUAL, COVARIANCE MATRIX, CROSS COUNTRY, CROSS COUNTRY REGRESSION, CULTURAL CHANGE, DATA SETS, DECOMPOSABLE POVERTY, DECOMPOSABLE POVERTY MEASURES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DISAGGREGATED LEVEL, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, ECONOMIC THEORY, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, EQUATIONS, ERROR TERM, ERROR TERMS, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, ESTIMATION RESULTS, EXPORT SUBSIDIES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FARM OUTPUT, FARMERS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTS, FOOD SECURITY, FREE TRADE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATES, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, HIGH GROWTH, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSING, IMPACT ON POVERTY, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, IMPORT LIBERALIZATION, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME MEASURES, INCOME POVERTY, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY MEASURES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND HOLDINGS, LIVING STANDARDS, LONG RUN, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MACROECONOMICS, MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY, MEDIUM TERM, MIGRATION, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY RATE, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POINT ESTIMATE, POINT ESTIMATES, POLICY ISSUES, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY REFORMS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POOR, POOR AREAS, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POOR PROVINCES, POPULATION CENSUS, POPULATION SHARE, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY CHANGES, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MAP, POVERTY MAPPING, POVERTY MAPS, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY STATUS, PROGRESS, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REFORM POLICIES, RESPECT, RURAL, RURAL AREA, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POOR, SEX, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, STANDARD DEVIATION, SUBSISTENCE, TARGETING, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REGIME, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POPULATIONS, USE PER CAPITA, VULNERABILITY, WAGE EARNERS, WAGES, WELFARE MEASURES, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO