Afghanistan Economic Update, April 2013
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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One year into the transition process,
Afghanistan sustains robust economic growth. An exceptional
harvest, supported by the launch of first large-scale mining
activities, increased real gross domestic product (GDP)
growth from 7.3 percent to an estimated 11.8 percent in
2012. Inflation dropped to 6.4 percent and continuing high
levels of aid helped to build up further international
reserves. The medium-term outlook is tainted by uncertainty.
Political and security uncertainties are expected to limit
private-sector growth in the coming years. Increased public
spending, however, will continue to fuel demand for services
and construction through 2013. The transition process
exposes Afghanistan to a number of serious risks, such as
rising financing for public service provision. Security
considerations aside, promoting sources of inclusive
economic growth, especially agriculture, and strengthening
domestic revenue mobilization will be important to mitigate
some of these risks. In particular, a stronger reform effort
in areas such as tax policy and customs is required to
safeguard past gains in development. Finally, improvements
in the legal and regulatory environment of mining could help
to secure planned investment.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO FINANCE, ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES, ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT, ADVISORY SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ASSETS, AUCTIONS, AUDITS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK FINANCING, BANK LENDING, BANKING LAW, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKRUPTCY, BENCHMARKS, BID, BINDING CONSTRAINT, BRANCH NETWORK, BROAD MONEY, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL BANK, CIVIL SERVICE, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL LOAN, COMMERCIAL LOANS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CORRUPTION, CPI, CREDIT ANALYSIS, CREDITS, CROWDING OUT, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DEBT STOCK, DECISION MAKING, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT LIABILITIES, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DONOR FUNDING, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC AGENTS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC SECTOR WORK, ECONOMICS, EDUCATION LEVELS, ELECTRONIC PAYMENT, ELECTRONIC PAYMENT SYSTEM, EMPLOYMENT, ENROLLMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPLOITATIONS, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORTER, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FAMILIES, FAMILY BUSINESSES, FARMERS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL PRODUCTS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCING NEED, FINANCING NEEDS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FIXED INVESTMENT, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GREEN REVOLUTION, GUARANTEE AGENCY, HOLDINGS, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME GROWTH, INFLATION, INTERNAL CONTROLS, INTERNATIONAL BANKS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT FINANCING, INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, INVESTMENT VOLUME, ISLAMIC BANKING, JUDICIAL REFORM, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LACK OF INFORMATION, LOAN PORTFOLIO, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL ECONOMY, LOSS OF CONFIDENCE, M2, MANDATES, MICROFINANCE, MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS, MICROFINANCE SECTOR, MINES, MONETARY CONTROL, NATIONAL INCOME, NATIONAL SECURITY, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OPERATING EXPENDITURES, OUTREACH, OUTSTANDING LOANS, PHYSICAL CAPITAL, PLEDGES, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POPULATION GROWTH, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTION CAPACITY, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SERVICE PROVISION, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATE OF RETURN, REAL GDP, REAL SECTOR, REGULATORY OVERSIGHT, REMITTANCE, RESERVE, RESERVES, REVENUE MOBILIZATION, RISK PERCEPTION, RULE OF LAW, RURAL ACCESS, SOURCE OF INCOME, SUPPLY CHAINS, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX, TAX POLICY, TAX REVENUE, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL DEBT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING, TRANSPARENCY, TREATY, TRUST FUND, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, WAGES, WHOLESALE PRICES, WITHDRAWAL