Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
The author develops, and applies a
macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of
domestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflation
dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period
1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several
"long-run" relationships for the goods, money, and
foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are
characterized by multiple exchange rates, import
restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls.
The empirical estimates, which use error correction
mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic
monetary, and output developments, and changes in the
official exchange rate, compared with the parallel market
rate, have had a significant influence on the short-run
behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan.
Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money markets
are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in
Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been
constrained by both the quantity, and the quality of
quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.
Palabras clave
AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, BUSINESS CYCLES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CPI, CURRENCY, CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION, CURRENCY UNITS, DEBT, DEMAND FOR MONEY, DEUTSCHE MARK, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISINFLATION, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICE LEVEL, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC STATISTICS, ELASTICITY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, EMPLOYMENT, EQUATIONS, EQUILIBRIUM, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOREIGN BORROWING, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GNP, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROWTH RATE, IMPORTS, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION STABILIZATION, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET CONDITIONS, MONEY BALANCES, MONEY DEMAND, MONEY MARKET, MONEY MARKETS, MONEY SUPPLY, MULTIPLE EXCHANGE RATES, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NOMINAL INTEREST RATES, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, PEGS, PHILLIPS CURVE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE LIBERALIZATION, PRODUCT MARKETS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATES, RELATIVE PRICE, SEASONAL FACTORS, SPREAD, STABILIZATION PROGRAMS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, SUBSTITUTES, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, TAX REVENUES, TERMS OF TRADE, TIME SERIES, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE REGIME, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, VALUATION, WAGE CONTROLS MARKET DISRUPTION, DISEQUILIBRIUM (ECONOMICS), INFLATION, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS, DOMESTIC MARKETS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, GOODS, MONEY MARKET ACCOUNTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, RESTRICTIVE BUSINESS PRACTICES, ERROR CORRECTION MODELS, MONETARY INDEXES, OUTPUTS, PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES, MARKET DISRUPTION, WAGE CONTROLS