Policy Decisions Evaluation in Agriculture Employing Input-Output Techniques: The Case of Tobacco Sector Regime Reform
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The evaluation of both direct and indirect effects of policy reforms are of primary interest in
studies related to farm sector. This ex post evaluation is much more important for small regional
economies depending on agriculture and rural activities for their prosperity. To that end,
the present paper attempts to provide an empirical assessment of a hypothetical reform in the
tobacco regime in Greece. Specifically, various scenarios on the basis of farm income decoupling
are formed and empirically evaluated. For doing so an input-output approach combined
with recent advances in goal programming modeling is employed. The analysis is carried out
for both the national and the regional economy of Anatoliki Makedonia and Thraki highly specialized
in tobacco cultivation. The empirical results indicate that both the national and the regional
economy will suffer significant employment, output and income losses from the change
in the policy regime towards farm income decoupling.