Myanmar Economic Monitor: Surviving, Not Thriving - Special focus on Myanmar’s Agrifood Industry Resilience and Adaptability
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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Economic conditions remain constrained due to the lingering effects of the March 2025 earthquake, ongoing conflict, subdued domestic demand, labor shortages, and persistent power outages. The recovery is fragile and uneven, with businesses and households directly affected by the earthquake continuing to face formidable obstacles. Only 45 percent of these firms have returned to pre-earthquake activity levels, with capital-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture lagging due to extensive physical damage, high reconstruction costs, and limited access to financial support. Household vulnerability and poverty have worsened. According to the September–November 2025 update of the World Bank’s Myanmar Subnational Phone Surveys (MSPS), the earthquake had a significant and enduring impact, affecting 16 percent of households nationwide and nearly 60 percent of households living close to the epicenter in Mandalay, Sagaing, and Naypyitaw. Consumption fell by nearly 2 percent nationwide, and poverty rates rose steeply in regions hardest hit by the quake. Only half of affected households have started repairs, with those in proximity to the epicenter being more likely to receive donor assistance. Losses of homes, assets, and jobs, especially in rural areas, have driven vulnerability, while informal work has increased in urban centers. Around 15 percent of households located near the epicenter experienced a loss of income or employment, highlighting the significant economic impact on people's livelihoods. Looking ahead, a moderate rebound of 3 percent is projected in FY2026-27, mainly driven by post-earthquake reconstruction, targeted support for affected sectors, and increased capital investment in public infrastructure. While recovery efforts are expected to stimulate growth in agriculture, services, and manufacturing, ongoing financing shortfalls, labor shortages, weak domestic demand, and structural bottlenecks are likely to restrain the pace and depth of economic recovery.
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ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, CONFLICT, ECONOMIC MODELING, LABOR SUPPLY, EARTHQUAKE EFFECTS, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE AND GROWTH, AGRIBUSINESS