Thailand Economic Monitor, April - June 2009
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Bangkok
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A solid financial armor could not
protect Thailand against the impact of the global financial
crisis on its real economy. Despite a sound banking system
and low external vulnerabilities, the Thai economy
contracted 5.7 percent between October 2008 and March 2009,
as the magnitude and speed of the contraction in foreign
demand, and resulting shock to the real economy, has been
greater than anticipated. There continues to be little
impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand's
banks: liquidity remained adequate as financial institutions
did not face solvency concerns given their adequate
capitalization and lack of exposure to 'toxic'
assets or risky derivative contracts. The combination of a
sound financial sector, low external roll-over and
balance-of-payment financing requirements, and, more
recently, large current account surpluses, has led to
capital inflows, build-up in reserves and an appreciation of
the Baht relative to other currencies in the region.
However, the impact of the global crisis on the real sector
was far more severe than expected. Export volumes contracted
by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to
the World Bank's forecast in December of a 3.0 percent
expansion. Exports contracted a further 16 percent in the
first quarter of 2009. The aggravation of Thailand's
political crisis, which had been dampening investor and
consumer confidence since 2006, compounded the shock to the
real economy. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP)
contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter
of 2009 after 38 quarters of growth, and is expected to
contract for 2009 as a whole, the first annual contraction
since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES, AGRICULTURE, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEET, BANK OFFICE, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKRUPTCY, BASIS POINTS, BENEFICIARIES, BILLS OF EXCHANGE, BINDING CONSTRAINTS, BOND, BOND MARKET, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKET, CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, CAPITAL OUTLAYS, CAPITALIZATION, CASH TRANSFER, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CLEARING HOUSE, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CONTINGENT LIABILITIES, CONTINGENT LIABILITY, CREDIT BUREAU, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT MARKETS, CREDITORS, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, DEBT, DEBT COMPOSITION, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT RATIOS, DEBT SECURITIES, DEBT STOCK, DEBTS, DECLINE IN INVESTMENT, DEFLATION, DEPOSIT, DERIVATIVE, DERIVATIVE CONTRACTS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISBURSEMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DURABLE, DURABLE GOODS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY INVESTMENT, EQUITY SECURITIES, EXCHANGE COMMISSION, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT SECTOR, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, FINANCING REQUIREMENTS, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FIXED INVESTMENT, FORECASTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS, FUTURE LOAN, FUTURES, FUTURES EXCHANGE, GDP, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL TRADE, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INDEBTEDNESS, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES, INFLATION, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY, INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENT, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LEADING INDICATORS, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, MARKET SHARES, MATURE MARKETS, MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEYLENDERS, MULTIPLIER EFFECT, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, MUTUAL FUND, NATIONAL CREDIT, NATIONAL INCOME, NET EXPORTS, NEW MARKETS, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, OIL PRICES, PENSION, POLITICAL RISKS, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, POLITICAL UNREST, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, PRICE CHANGES, PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTION COSTS, PROPERTY VALUES, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC DEBT STOCKS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, REAL GDP, RECESSION, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RESERVE, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURNS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SECURITIES, SHARE OF ASSETS, SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, SKILLS SHORTAGES, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SOLVENCY, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCK MARKETS, TAX, TRADE CREDIT, TRADE CREDITS, TRADE FINANCE, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE REFORMS, TRADE REGIME, TRADING, TROUGH, UNDERESTIMATES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNFAIR COMPETITION, VALUATION, VARIABLE INTEREST RATE, WAGES, WEALTH, WORKING CAPITAL, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO