What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Following a decade-and-a-half stall,
fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010.
Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper
finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort
effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer
children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An
Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive
rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings
show that improved female education levels account for the
largest part of the fertility decline, with improving
household living standards and the progressive move toward
non-agricultural employment being important secondary
drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient
for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can
be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants,
most notably the large increase in educational attainment
between 2005 and 2010.
Palabras clave
ADULTS, AGE DISTRIBUTION, AGE GROUPS, AGE-GROUP, AGED, AVAILABILITY OF FAMILY PLANNING, AVERAGE AGE, BASIC EDUCATION, BIRTH COHORT, BIRTH CONTROL, CARE OF CHILDREN, CHANGES IN FERTILITY, CHILD BEARING, CHILD DEATHS, CHILD MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY RATES, CHILD REARING, CHILDHOOD, CHILDREN PER WOMAN, COMMUNITY HEALTH, CONTRACEPTION, CONTRACEPTION USE, DECLINE IN FERTILITY, DECLINES IN FERTILITY, DEMAND FOR FAMILY PLANNING, DEMAND FOR FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES, DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEMOGRAPHY, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ECONOMIC CHANGE, ECONOMIC CHANGES, ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC STATUS, EDUCATED MOTHERS, EDUCATED WOMEN, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, FAMILIES, FAMILY PLANNING, FAMILY PLANNING INFORMATION, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS, FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES, FAMILY RESPONSIBILITIES, FEMALE EDUCATION, FEMALE LABOR FORCE, FEMALE LITERACY, FERTILITY, FERTILITY BEHAVIOR, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DECLINES, FERTILITY LEVELS, FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATES, FERTILITY TRANSITION, FERTILITY TRANSITIONS, FEWER BIRTHS, FEWER CHILDREN, FEWER YEARS OF EDUCATION, FIRST BIRTH, FIRST MARRIAGE, GENERATIONS, GENOCIDE, HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTHY CHILDREN, HIGH CHILD MORTALITY, HIGH FERTILITY LEVELS, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT OF FAMILY PLANNING, IMPACT ON FERTILITY, INCOME-GENERATING ACTIVITIES, KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR SUPPLY, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LEVELS OF FERTILITY, LIFETIME FERTILITY, LIVE BIRTHS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOW FERTILITY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOWER FERTILITY, MARITAL STATUS, MASS MEDIA, MODERN CONTRACEPTION, MORTALITY, MORTALITY RATE, NATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, OLDER WOMEN, PARENTS, PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION ASSOCIATION, POPULATION CHANGE, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION GROWTH, POSTERS, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PROGRESS, PUBLIC POLICY, RADIO, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, SCHOOL AGE, SCHOOLS, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL CHANGE, SOCIAL NORMS, STD, TELEVISION, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, TOTAL FERTILITY RATES, UNWANTED PREGNANCIES, USE OF CONTRACEPTION, WOMAN, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG WOMEN, YOUNGER WOMEN, YOUTH