Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis

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dc.creatorGibson, Matthew
dc.creatorSundiang, Marina
dc.creatorMason-D’Croz, Daniel
dc.creatorOliveira, Thais Diniz
dc.creatorLotze-Campen, Hermann
dc.creatorBeier, Felicitas
dc.creatorPopp, Alex
dc.creatorvan Zeist, Willem-Jan
dc.creatorvan Meijl, Hans
dc.creatorde Lange, Thijs
dc.creatorvan der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
dc.creatorChepeliev, Maksym
dc.creatorVan Vuuren, Detlef
dc.creatorStehfest, Elke
dc.creatorDoelman, Jonathan
dc.creatorHavlik, Petr
dc.creatorKozicka, Marta
dc.creatorWiebe, Keith D.
dc.creatorMishra, Abhijeet
dc.creatorHasegawa, Tomoko
dc.creatorFujimori, Shinichiro
dc.creatorSpringmann, Marco
dc.creatorSands, Ron
dc.creatorHristov, Jordan
dc.creatorDominguez, Igancio P.
dc.creatorHerrero, Mario
dc.date2024-06-05
dc.date2025-01-24T19:53:46Z
dc.date2025-01-24T19:53:46Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:04:28Z
dc.descriptionFood systems must transform in pursuit of health, sustainability, and justice goals. The scale and distribution of these profound changes across different food sectors is underexplored. We examine possible impacts on food sectors, contextualised with historical data, of a global food systems transformation by 2050. We do this through modelling a transformation scenario composed of dietary change, productivity growth, and reduction of food loss and waste using a multi-model ensemble of 8 global economic models. Preliminary results show substantial food sector restructuring, including a decline in the economic value of agricultural production (-$1.4tn) by 2050 under a transformation scenario versus current trends. Within this, the value of livestock production collapses (-$1tn) with declines also in cereal and sugar crop values of $800bn, partially offset by increases in the value of vegetable, fruit, and nut production ($700bn). Preliminary results also show changes to growth rates of agricultural land expansion from 0.56%/year on average for grazing land over the last 250 years to -0.87%/year from 2020 to 2050 in a food systems transformation scenario, compared to 0.12%/year under business-as-usual trends. The restructuring of global agriculture and food systems suggests a critical role for food policy to both catalyse such a transformation, as well as navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/169873
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/93733
dc.languageen
dc.publisherPurdue University
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceGibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; et al. 2024. Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis. Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis at Fort Collins in Colorado, USA. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7313
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectfood systems
dc.subjecteconometric models
dc.subjecthistory
dc.titleComparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis
dc.typeConference Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)