What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

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dc.creatorPetsakos, Athanasios
dc.creatorMontes, Carlo
dc.creatorPequeno, Diego
dc.creatorSchiek, Benjamin
dc.creatorSonder, Kai
dc.date2025-07-21
dc.date2025-06-20T19:34:25Z
dc.date2025-06-20T19:34:25Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:43:15Z
dc.descriptionCrop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/112730
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourcePetsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Pequeno, Diego; Schiek, Benjamin; and Sonder, Kai. 2025. What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 8, Pp. 45-49. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230
dc.subjectfood systems
dc.subjectplant pests
dc.subjectplant diseases
dc.subjectplant health
dc.subjectyield factors
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectyield losses
dc.subjectpathogens
dc.subjectartificial intelligence
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.titleWhat do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
dc.typeBook Chapter

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)