A Rational Risk Policy for Regulating Plant Diseases and Pests
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This paper examines the Federal quarantine established by USDA in 1996 to
prevent the spread of Karnal bunt, a minor disease of wheat. During the early
stages of its regulatory strategy, USDA made extensive use of probabilistic
risk assessments to determine the efficacy of various quarantine protocols.
However, there was less careful consideration given to the costs and benefits
of the actions. If risk had been incorporated directly into the cost/benefit
analysis, different conclusions would likely have been drawn about the
expected impact of the regulations. This paper develops a methodology for
combining these two analyses to improve future regulatory decision-making.