The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
This paper summarizes the methods and
findings of the hydrological assessment component of the
project studying likely impacts of climate change on water
resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the
study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model
called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to
simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the
whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular
catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were
the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and
physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land
use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree
latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary
model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of
simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the
districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of
the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the
above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated
input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate
change within the districts being investigated this study
used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as
input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to
determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff
and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under
study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario
analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian
regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of
climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL RUNOFF, ANTARCTICA, ARID AREAS, BASINS, BIOSPHERE, CASE STUDIES, CATCHMENT, CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATOLOGY, CLOUD COVER, CLOUDINESS, CONSTRUCTION, COVERING, CROPLAND, CROPS, CRU, DATA QUALITY, DATA SOURCES, DESERTS, DISCHARGE, DRAINAGE, DRAINAGE NETWORK, ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEMS, EMISSIONS, ENVIRONMENTS, EVAPORATION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, FLOW REGIMES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, GCM, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, GEOSPHERE, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY, GLOBAL WARMING, GRASSLAND, GREENHOUSE GASES, HYDROGRAPHS, HYDROLOGICAL REGIME, HYDROLOGY, ICE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL WATER, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LAKES, LAND AREAS, LAND USE, LAND VALUE, MIDDLE EAST, MIDDLE EASTERN, OCEANS, PRECIPITATION, PRESSURE, RAIN, RAINFALL, REGIONAL CLIMATE, RESERVOIRS, RIVER, RIVER BASIN, RIVER BASINS, RIVERS, RUNOFF, SOIL, SOILS, STREAM, STREAMFLOW, SURFACE FLOW, SURFACE RUNOFF, SURFACE WATER, TEMPERATURE, TOPOGRAPHY, VEGETATION, WATER REQUIREMENTS, WATER RESOURCE, WATER RESOURCES, WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT, WATER STORAGE, WEATHER, WETLANDS, WIND, WIND SPEED, WMO, WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION