Comparing Approaches to Project COVID-19 Effects on Poverty
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Different studies use different
approaches to forecast how many people will fall into
poverty due to the outbreak of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19),
with largely different results. Even when using the same
growth forecasts and poverty lines, poverty projections
differ largely by approaches: one projects poverty to
increase by around 400 million individuals, while another
estimates as few as 49 million individuals will fall into
poverty. This note compares approaches and how their
specific methodological details lead to different estimates
of poverty effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Palabras clave
POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY AND EQUITY, CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT