Accounting for Growth in Australia’s Grape and Wine Industries, 1986 to 2003
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This paper seeks first to quantify the relative importance of the different factors contributing
to growth in Australia’s wine industry over the ten years to 1996. This growth accounting
exercise uses an economy-wide model for Australia that separately distinguishes nonpremium
from premium red and premium white grapes and wine. Around half the premium
wine output growth in that period is attributed to export demand growth. Other important
contributors to growth include upgrading of domestic preferences, increases in national
income, input-saving technological changes and (negatively) increases in domestic consumer
taxes on wine. Looking forward, recent and intended vine plantings ensure wine output in
2003 will be about twice that of the mid-1990s. Our model is used to examine how that
vineyard expansion might affect the market, especially grape and wine prices and wine
exports early next century.