Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Thousands of scenarios are used to
provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change
on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of
people falling into poverty due to climate change is between
32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results
are commensurate with available estimates for the global
poverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play
a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid and
inclusive growth with universal access to basic services in
2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimistic
baselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting)
and the effect of food prices are responsible for most of
the impact. The effect of food prices is the most important
factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, natural
disasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia.
These results suggest that accelerated action to boost
resilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages
offer opportunities to do so.
Palabras clave
CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, EXTREME POVERTY, INEQUALITY, SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS, UNCERTAINTY, ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES, HEALTH IMPACT, FOOD PRICES, NATURAL DISASTER, CLIMATE RESILIENCE