A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Drawing on international trade data,
this paper uses the product space approach to analyze
changes in Morocco’s goods exports in 1990–2010 and future
export priorities. The level of Morocco’s gross domestic
product and its moderate growth match the predictions of
product space analysis, informed by changes in the income
potential of Morocco’s export basket, reflecting relatively
strong capabilities (a high density) in products with
relatively low potentials in income and diversification.
Morocco’s peripheral position in the product space map
matches its slow growth and points to the difficulty of
diversification into more sophisticated products.
Encouraging changes since 1990 include the development of a
revealed comparative advantage for medium- and high-tech
manufactures, which in 2010 represented around 40 percent of
total goods exports. However, the number of goods involved
is relatively small and this transformation has not sufficed
to raise per capita growth to the average for middle-income
countries. Export projections up to 2025 suggest that future
developments will follow the trends of the past. Among
sectors, high growth is likely for phosphate-based
fertilizer exports. However, like edible oil products, which
also may grow rapidly, phosphates are hampered by low income
and diversification potentials. Along with various other
manufactured products, electronics and the automotive
industry are promising sectors that may offer more lasting
positive contributions to Morocco’s future development.
Beyond goods, Morocco’s policy makers should also consider
the potential contributions of service exports, which in
recent years have enjoyed rapid growth.
Palabras clave
GROWTH RATE, MERCHANDISE, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKETS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, PRODUCTION, STOCK, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, INCOME, SALES, CHEMICAL, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, INDUSTRY, PRODUCERS, GDP PER CAPITA, EXPORTS, SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, INCENTIVES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, VARIABLES, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, PRICE, INPUTS, WEALTH, MERCHANDISE TRADE, TRENDS, DEVELOPMENT, INFLUENCE, MARGINAL PRODUCTS, IRON, PER CAPITA INCOME, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, EXPORT GROWTH, BRANDS, ANIMAL OILS, PER CAPITA INCOME, TEXTILE INDUSTRY, CONSTRUCTION, EXCHANGE RATES, NATURAL RESOURCES, PRODUCTS, MONOPOLY, INCREASING RETURNS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, MARKETS, MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, TRADE POLICIES, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME LEVELS, RESEARCH, IMPORTS, PRODUCT, BASKET OF GOODS, NATURAL RESOURCES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EXPORT MARKETS, TRADE POLICIES, PRODUCTION INPUTS, TAXES, HUMAN CAPITAL, VALUE ADDED, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, FUTURE, VALUE, FATS, COMPETITIVENESS, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DEMAND, SUSTAINABLE USE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, AGRICULTURE, EXCHANGE RATES, MARKET SHARE, MARKET, GROWTH POTENTIAL, DIVERSIFICATION, MERCHANDISE EXPORT, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE USE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, TRADE, GDP, EXPORT‐LED GROWTH, GOODS, LAND, THEORY, MARKET SHARE, GROWTH RATE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, TANNING, MEAT, SUPPLY, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, INVESTMENTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, VALUE ADDED, GDP PER CAPITA, COMMODITIES, MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES, INCREASING RETURNS, MARGINAL PRODUCTS, COMMODITY, GROWTH POTENTIAL, WORLD MARKET, ECONOMIC GROWTH, SERVICE, PRICES, PRODUCTION INPUTS, MERCHANDISE EXPORT, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, SUGAR