AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations

Bell, Clive; Koukoumelis, Anastasios

AIDS and Dualism : Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations

Autores

Descripción

An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable.

Palabras clave

ADULT ILLITERACY, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE COSTS, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURE, AIDS EPIDEMIC, AIDS PATIENTS, ALGORITHM, AVERAGE GROWTH, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BEQUESTS, BRAIN DRAIN, BUDGETARY SUPPORT, BULLETIN, CALCULATION, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL STOCK, CHILD LABOR, CHILD LABOUR, CHILD MORTALITY, COMPLICATIONS, CONDOM, CONDOM PROMOTION, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONTRIBUTION, CONTRIBUTIONS, COSTS OF AIDS, CURRENT INCOME, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEPENDENT CHILDREN, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DIMINISHING RETURNS, DISABILITY, DISCOUNT RATE, DUAL ECONOMY, EARLY DEATH, ECONOMIC AGENTS, ECONOMIC COSTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC REFORM, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS, ELASTICITY, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, ENDOWMENTS, ENROLLMENT, ENROLLMENTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, EXCESS MORTALITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXTENDED FAMILY, FACT SHEET, FAMILIES, FAMILY FARM, FAMILY MEMBERS, FAMILY STRUCTURE, FARMERS, FERTILITY LEVELS, FERTILITY RATES, FEWER CHILDREN, FORECASTS, FORM OF INVESTMENT, FORMAL EDUCATION, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENDER, GENDER INEQUALITY, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE COSTS, HEALTH-SECTOR, HIV, HOUSEHOLD POVERTY, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT OF AIDS, INCOME, INFANT, INFECTIONS, INSURANCE, INTERNAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR SUPPLY, LABOUR MARKET, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LEVEL OF FERTILITY, LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LEVELS OF FERTILITY, LEVELS OF MORTALITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIFETIME, LIVING CONDITIONS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOWER FERTILITY, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY, MARKET INFORMATION, MEDICAL CARE, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION FLOWS, MINISTRY OF HEALTH, MORTALITY RATE, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NATURAL RESOURCE, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUMBER OF MIGRANTS, OLD AGE, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, OPTIMIZATION, ORPHANS, PANDEMIC, PARENTAL CARE, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PHYSICAL CAPITAL, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION MOVEMENTS, POPULATION PRESSURE, POPULATION RESEARCH, POPULATION SIZE, POPULATION STRUCTURE, POPULATION STRUCTURES, PREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY, PREMATURE DEATH, PRESENT VALUE, PRESENT VALUES, PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE, PROBABILITIES, PROBABILITY, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFITABILITY, PROGRESS, PUBLIC GOOD, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, RATE OF GROWTH, RATE OF TRANSMISSION, RESPECT, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POPULATION, SAFE BLOOD SUPPLY, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATE, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SEX, SEX WORKERS, SEXUALLY ACTIVE, SEXUALLY ACTIVE POPULATION, SMALLHOLDERS, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL SCIENCE, SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH, SOCIAL WELFARE, SOIL EROSION, SOURCES OF INCOME, STOCKS, SURVIVAL RATE, TAX BURDEN, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNION, UNIONS, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN MIGRATION, URBAN POPULATION, URBANIZATION, UTILITY FUNCTION, VALUABLE, VALUE ADDED, VICTIMS, VILLAGE, VILLAGES, WAGE, WAGES, WORKING AGE, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG ADULT, YOUNG ADULTHOOD, YOUNG ADULTS, YOUNG CHILDREN, YOUNG COUPLE