Ex post assessment methods of climate forecast impacts
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Inter-Research Science Center
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While a considerable body of literature has grown around the ex ante assessment of the value of climate forecast information, relatively little has been applied to ex post analyses. Using the literature that assesses the impact of agricultural research and extension as a starting point, our paper suggests advancements in survey design, data collection, econometric methodology and project evaluation that can improve ex post impact assessment of climate forecast information. We also emphasize the need to better integrate economic theory with empirical methodology, so as to account for behavioral dynamics and the presence of rigidities and fixities facing economic agents and food production systems. Through these types of advances in theoretical and empirical modeling, researchers will be better equipped to conduct ex post impact assessment and more accurately measure the value of the climate forecast information reaching the agricultural producer.
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climate prediction, economic value, econometric models, assessment