Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

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dc.creatorMaystadt, Jean-François
dc.creatorYou, Liangzhi
dc.creatorCalderone, Margherita Bernal
dc.date2013
dc.date2024-10-01T13:56:37Z
dc.date2024-10-01T13:56:37Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:14:36Z
dc.descriptionWeather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/98672
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceCalderone, Margherita; Maystadt, Jean-Francois and You, Liangzhi. 2013. Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1276 Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553
dc.subjectweather
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjectvulnerability
dc.subjectresilience
dc.subjectarmed conflicts
dc.subjectdisasters
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleLocal warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)