Russian Economic Report, No. 29, Spring 2013 : Recovery and Beyond
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Washington, DC
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Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent
in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of
Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net
exports, negative base effects, and destocking at the end of
the year. More than four years after the global financial
crisis hit, the world economy remains sluggish. Industrial
production lost momentum throughout last year, exports
expanded only at a moderate pace, and imports even declined
for three month during autumn 2012. Growth declined mainly
due to weaker performance of investment. Inventories were
flat as the restocking cycle after the crisis came to an
end, and fixed investment expanded only moderately as
business remained cautious about future prospects. The
weaker performance of the tradable sectors reflects sluggish
global demand and the poor agricultural harvest but also low
competitiveness in parts of the industry, as growth declined
for all three subsectors. The capital account strengthened
in 2012 as net capital outflows decreased. According to
preliminary estimates, the capital account deficit amounted
to US$40.9 billion or 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in 2012, compared to US$76.2 billion or 4 percent of
GDP in 2011. The labor market remains tight. The
unemployment rate declined across the country, and vacancy
and replacement rates increased. The number of poor people
in Russia reached a record low. In the first nine months of
2012, some 17.2 million of people were below the poverty
line, three million less than a year ago and the lowest
number in the last two decades. The weak external
environment, high inflation, flat oil prices and sluggish
domestic demand are set to postpone a pickup in growth
towards the second half of 2013. Nevertheless, modest growth
and lower inflation are projected to reduce poverty further.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING STANDARDS, ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN, ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, ANNUAL GROWTH, ARREARS, AUCTION, AVERAGE OIL PRICE, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK LENDING, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SUPERVISION, BANKING SYSTEM, BASIS POINTS, BORROWING CAPACITY, BRIBE, BRIBES, BUFFERS, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, COMPOSITION OF GOVERNMENT DEBT, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER LENDING, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORE INFLATION, CORRUPTION, CPI, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT QUALITY, CURRENCY, CURRENCY SWAP, CURRENCY SWAPS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEBT REPAYMENTS, DEFICITS, DEMAND FOR CREDIT, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEPOSIT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, ENTREPRENEURS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY, EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, FEDERAL BUDGET, FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT, FINANCES, FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, FINANCIAL ASSETS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT, FIXED INVESTMENT, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN RESERVES, FORESTRY, FREEDOM OF INFORMATION, GENDER, GLOBAL BUSINESS, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKET, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT POLICIES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROUP LENDING, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOLDING, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLDS, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORTS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION TARGETING, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BORROWINGS, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INVENTORIES, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT INCOME, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, MARKET RISK, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY MARKET, MONEY MARKET RATES, MONEY SUPPLY, MORTGAGE, MORTGAGE DEBT, MORTGAGE LENDING, NATIONAL SECURITY, NATURAL RESOURCES, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, OIL, OIL MARKET, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL REVENUES, OPEC, OUTPUT GAP, PENSION, PENSION FUND, PENSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POPULATION GROWTH, PORTFOLIO, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE STABILITY, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIVATE BANKS, PRIVATE CREDIT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION CAPACITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC BORROWING, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FUNDS, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, PUBLIC SPENDING, REAL ESTATE, REAL WAGE GROWTH, REAL WAGES, RECEIPTS, RECESSION, RED TAPE, REGULATORY BARRIER, REPO, REPO RATE, RESERVE, RESERVE FUND, RESERVE FUNDS, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURNS, RISK PERCEPTION, SALES REVENUES, SAVINGS, SHARE OF CREDITS, SLOWDOWN, SOVEREIGN BONDS, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET INDEX, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, SWAP, SWAPS, TARGET RANGE, TAX, TAX COLLECTION, TAX RATES, TOTAL DEBT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADING, TRANSACTION, TRANSPARENCY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNION, WAGES, WORLD ECONOMY