The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis

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dc.creatorSeo, Sungno Niggol
dc.creatorMendelsohn, Robert
dc.date2012-06-07T20:23:16Z
dc.date2012-06-07T20:23:16Z
dc.date2007-07
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:50:43Z
dc.descriptionThis paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of species, the net income per animal, and the number of animals are all highly dependent on climate. As climate warms, net income across all animals will fall, especially across beef cattle. The fall in net income causes African farmers to reduce the number of animals on their farms. The fall in relative revenues also causes them to shift away from beef cattle and toward sheep and goats. All farmers will lose income but the most vulnerable farms are large African farms that currently specialize in beef cattle. Small livestock and large livestock farms respond to climates differently. Small farms are diversified, relying on dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and chickens. Large farms specialize in dairy and beef cattle. Estimating a separate multinomial logit selection model for small and large farms reveals that the two types of farm choose species differently and specifically have different climate response functions. The regressions of the number of animals also reveal that large farms are more responsive to climate. The results indicate that warming will be harmful to commercial livestock owners, especially cattle owners. Owners of commercial livestock farms have few alternatives either in crops or other animal species. In contrast, small livestock farms are better able to adapt to warming or precipitation increases by switching to heat tolerant animals or crops. Livestock operations will be a safety valve for small farmers if warming or drought causes their crops to fail.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848150/impact-climate-change-livestock-management-africa-structural-ricardian-analysis
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/7463
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4279
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/411855
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4279
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectANIMAL
dc.subjectANIMAL HUSBANDRY
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectANIMAL SPECIES
dc.subjectANIMALS
dc.subjectBARNS
dc.subjectBEEF
dc.subjectBEEF CATTLE
dc.subjectBEES
dc.subjectBREEDING
dc.subjectBULLS
dc.subjectBUTTER
dc.subjectCAMELS
dc.subjectCATTLE
dc.subjectCATTLE OWNERS
dc.subjectCATTLE POPULATION
dc.subjectCHEESE
dc.subjectCHICKENS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL LIVESTOCK FARMS
dc.subjectDAIRY
dc.subjectDAIRY CATTLE
dc.subjectDISTRICT LEVEL
dc.subjectDUCKS
dc.subjectECOSYSTEM
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectEGGS
dc.subjectFARM
dc.subjectFARMER
dc.subjectFARMING
dc.subjectFARMS
dc.subjectFEED
dc.subjectFORAGE
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectFOWL
dc.subjectGOATS
dc.subjectGRASSLAND
dc.subjectGRASSLANDS
dc.subjectGRAZING
dc.subjectHORSES
dc.subjectINCOME FROM LIVESTOCK
dc.subjectISSUES
dc.subjectLEATHER
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK DISEASES
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK FARM
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK FARMERS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK FARMS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK INCOME
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK OPERATIONS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK OWNERS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCT
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK RESEARCH
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK SPECIES
dc.subjectMANURE
dc.subjectMEAT
dc.subjectMILK
dc.subjectNATURAL ECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectPASTORALISTS
dc.subjectPASTURE
dc.subjectPIGS
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectSAHEL
dc.subjectSAVANNA
dc.subjectSHEEP
dc.subjectTRYPANOSOMIASIS
dc.subjectWOOL
dc.titleThe Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis

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