What Drives the Global “Land Rush”?
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The 2007-2008 upsurge in agricultural
commodity prices gave rise to widespread concern about
investors causing a "global land rush". Large land
deals can provide opportunities for better access to
capital, transfer of technology, and advances in
productivity and employment generation. But they carry risks
of dispossession and loss of livelihoods, corruption,
deterioration in local food security, environmental damage,
and long-term social polarization that led some countries to
recently pass legislation restricting foreign land
acquisition. To stimulate evidence-based debate, this paper
explores determinants of foreign land acquisition for
large-scale agriculture. It quantifies demand for land
deals, showing it focused on Africa where land expansion is
about 20 times the level it was in the past. The analysis
uses data on bilateral investment relationships, together
with newly constructed indicators of agro-ecological
suitability in non-protected and forested areas with low
population density as well as land rights security. It
estimates gravity models that can help identify determinants
of foreign land acquisition dedicated to large-scale
agriculture. The results confirm the central role of
agro-ecological potential as a pull factor. In contrast to
the literature on foreign investment in general, the quality
of the business climate is insignificant, whereas weak land
governance and tenure security for current users make
countries more attractive for investors. Implications for
policy are discussed.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO CAPITAL, ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, AGRICULTURAL LANDS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ARABLE LAND, ARBITRATION, AUCTIONS, BANK POLICY, BANKS, BIODIVERSITY, BUSINESS CLIMATE, BUSINESS CYCLE, CAPITAL FLOW, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY RESEARCH, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CULTIVABLE LAND, CULTIVATED AREA, CULTIVATED LAND, CULTIVATION, DEBT, DEFAULT RISK, DEFORESTATION, DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT, DROUGHTS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMPLOYMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS, ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS, EQUATOR PRINCIPLES, EQUITY FUNDS, EQUITY MARKETS, EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS, EXPORTER, EXPORTERS, EXPROPRIATION, EXTERNALITIES, FACE VALUE, FAIR PRICE, FARM SIZE, FARMLAND, FINANCE CORPORATION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN FIRM, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT FLOWS, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREST, FOREST LAND, FOREST PLANTATIONS, FOREST RESOURCES, FOREST SECTOR, FORESTRY, FORESTRY INDUSTRY, FORESTRY LAW, FORESTS, GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, GLOBAL CAPITAL, GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS, GLOBALIZATION, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNANCE INDEX, GOVERNANCE INDICATOR, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, HOST COUNTRIES, HOST COUNTRY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME, INFLOWS OF CAPITAL, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL LAW, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTOR INTEREST, INVESTOR PROTECTION, JOB CREATION, LAND ACQUISITION, LAND CLEARING, LAND MARKETS, LAND OWNERS, LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND POLICIES, LAND POLICY, LAND QUALITY, LAND REFORM, LAND RIGHTS, LAND TENURE, LAND TENURE SECURITY, LAND TENURE SYSTEMS, LAND TRANSFERS, LAND USE, LAND USERS, LAND VALUES, LEGISLATION, LIABILITY, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDATION, LONG-TERM INVESTMENT, MARGINAL LANDS, MARKET DISTORTIONS, MARKET PRICES, MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL INVESTMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL, OPPORTUNITY COST, OUTPUT, POLICY RESPONSE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL STABILITY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, PRIVATE EQUITY, PRODUCTIVITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PROTECTION OF INVESTORS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC LAND, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUSH FACTORS, RATES OF RETURN, RED TAPE, REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, RENEGOTIATION, RETURNS, RULE OF LAW, SHAREHOLDERS, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOILS, SOVEREIGN RISK, SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT, TAX, TAX BREAKS, TRADE FLOWS, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTION COST, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORT, TRUST FUND, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WORLD ECONOMY, ZONING